El Niño: A worrying forecast for Indian weather has emerged. Weather experts say El Niño is now set to show its most dangerous form. The Indian monsoon is about to see a big shift. Scientists say El Niño will now reveal its most severe phase. Meanwhile, the monsoon trough — the low-pressure wind zone — has moved south from the plains of North India. It is currently passing over Central India, and this will impact weather across the country. The next few days are crucial for the monsoon, because they will decide what August weather looks like. What happens when the monsoon trough shifts When the monsoon trough moves away from the north and toward the plains of North India and Central India, moist easterly winds strengthen over the northern plains. This brings rain to Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, and North Rajasthan. Right now, these moist easterly winds have already started affecting the northern plains. So over the next few days we’ll see a moderately active monsoon pattern here. Expect: One or two short spells of rain in UP, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh and North Rajasthan. There could be moderate to heavy showers, but it will be patchy — covering only 30-50% of the area, not the entire region. No widespread heavy rain is expected. States likely to get heavy rain Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra will see an active monsoon for the next 24 hours, with continued heavy rainfall. After that, the system will shift toward Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and South Rajasthan. Thursday to Sunday, these states could see heavy rain, and there’s a possibility of flood-like conditions in some areas. Drought fear in South India The peninsular region of South India is still seeing less rain. Parts of Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh are getting below-normal rainfall. Due to El Niño’s influence, the monsoon is likely to remain weak in southern India. What is El Niño? El Niño means “The Little Boy” in Spanish. It occurs when surface water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than normal. Normally, trade winds push warm water toward Asia. During El Niño, those winds weaken, so the warm water stays near South America. How it affects the world India: Usually means a weaker monsoon and less rainfall. This can lead to drier conditions and higher temperatures. South America: Heavy rains, floods USA & Canada: Warmer winters, more storms Australia & Southeast Asia: Droughts, heatwaves Is El Niño happening now in 2026? As of July 2026, most global weather agencies are monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures. IMD has declared that El Niño conditions are present and are expected to strengthen during the monsoon season, with a 92% chance of it continuing through 2026. This is why the coming days are so important for rainfall patterns across India. Bottom line: Rain won’t stop completely, but it will be uneven. North and Central India may get short spells, while East and West India see heavy rain. South India remains at risk of a dry spell due to El Niño. Post navigation Monsoon Picks Up Pace, IMD Issues Heavy Rain Alerts For North, East And Northeast India
