Why Are India’s Exports to China Suddenly Rising?

For years, selling to China has been a tough game for Indian exporters. But something is changing — and the numbers are finally starting to show it.

The biggest driver? Electronics.

With AI booming and data centers popping up everywhere, the demand for high-end electronic equipment has skyrocketed. Indian suppliers are now getting pulled into that supply chain.

As Rajoo Goel of the Electronic Industries Association of India puts it, the pressure to meet AI-related demand is directly pushing more Indian electronics toward China.

More Than Just Trade

For New Delhi, this is more than just a trade stat. It’s a small but important win for its ‘Make in India’ and supply-chain ambitions.

And timing matters. India and China are both trying to stabilize their relationship after years of tension. Add in Washington’s aggressive tariff policy, and both Asian giants have a fresh reason to look at each other as business partners again.

“The fact that we are being accepted in one of the most competitive value chains in the world shows Indian manufacturing is earning credibility,” says Pankaj Mohindroo, Chairman of ICEA.

Others agree. Arun Kumar Garodia of Corona Steel Industry says that even though the volumes are still small, Beijing seems more open to Indian goods than before in this new geopolitical reality.

But Wait — The Data Doesn’t Fully Add Up

Here’s the twist.If you look at China’s customs data, you won’t find a matching surge in printed circuit boards coming from India. The spike shows up instead under smartphones and telecom equipment.

Why the mismatch? Most likely, India and China classify the same product differently. So what exactly is driving the surge is still a bit of a mystery, say industry insiders.

How Big Is This Really?

Let’s keep it in perspective.

China is still a small customer for India. In the year ending March, it accounted for just 4.4% of India’s exports, up from 3% a year ago. Compare that to the US, which alone buys almost 20% of Indian exports.

And the trade imbalance is still massive. India imported $131.6 billion worth of Chinese goods in the same year — nearly 17% of all its imports. That’s many times more than what it exported.

The Good News: It’s Not Just Electronics Anymore

The latest numbers show the growth is spreading.

Engineering exports to China — think machinery, auto components, hand tools — jumped 21% in April-August compared to last year.

So this isn’t just a one-product story anymore.

As Mohindroo sums it up, “The task now is to sustain this and expand into components, sub-assemblies and finished products, while we build stronger design capabilities at home.”

In other words: The door to China is slightly open. The question is, can Indian manufacturing keep it open — and push it wider?