Strengthening El Niño and Neutral IOD Raise Concerns for Indian Monsoon

New Delhi

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is closely monitoring weather patterns as a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean threatens the remainder of the monsoon season. With the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently remaining neutral, concerns are growing over a potential deficit in overall seasonal rainfall.

El Niño Intensification and Delay in Positive IOD

• Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures: Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to rise above average. Climate models suggest El Niño could strengthen significantly, with peak intensity expected around November.
• Neutral IOD Impact: While a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically helps counter El Niño’s suppressing effect on the Indian monsoon, the IOD currently remains neutral. Forecasts indicate it may turn positive in September, but its strength may not be sufficient to fully offset the impact of El Niño.
• Rainfall Deficit Forecast: Total seasonal rainfall is at risk of falling below normal levels. Current estimates suggest the deficit could surpass earlier projections, potentially dropping below 90% of the long-period average.

Regional Distribution of Rainfall Deficits

Rainfall across the country has shown marked regional variations:

Key states facing notable deficits include Bihar, Jharkhand, and parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh, alongside moisture stress in regions like Vidarbha and Marathwada. Conversely, areas such as Odisha and West Bengal have recorded normal to above-normal precipitation due to localized weather systems in the Bay of Bengal.