Reliance Jumps Nearly 12% on Blowout Earnings Beat, Adds Record $19 Billion

Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) rallied nearly 12% on Monday, creating over $19 billion in shareholder wealth in the largest single-day market value gain ever recorded by an Indian corporation. The surge marks the stock’s strongest single-session performance since April 2020, powered by a significant quarterly earnings beat and a historic shift in analyst sentiment.

Universal Bullish Stance Across Brokerages

Following the stellar financial results, Avendus Spark—the sole brokerage holding a sell-equivalent view on the energy-to-telecom conglomerate—upgraded RIL from “Reduce” to “Add.” Analyst Arun Prasath, who held a bearish stance for most of the previous four years, set a 12-month target price of ₹1,280.

With this revision, Reliance boasts 32 “Buy” ratings and zero “Hold” or “Sell” calls, achieving a unanimous bullish consensus among covering analysts for the first time since 2017.

The reversal follows a period of pronounced underperformance, during which RIL shares had retreated over 20% year-to-date, driving valuations to multi-year lows amid lingering worries over retail growth. Avendus noted that the earlier decline priced in an excessive holding-company discount of nearly 80% on Reliance’s 64.5% holding in Jio Platforms Ltd., arguing that the discount should realistically contract toward the 25% to 30% range over time.

Strong Energy Spreads Fuel Earnings Beat

RIL shares settled near ₹1,300, propelled by strong operational numbers for the July–September quarter:

• Consolidated Net Profit: Jumped over 40% year-on-year to ₹25,550 crore ($2.7 billion), soundly beating the consensus analyst estimate of ₹21,367 crore compiled by Bloomberg.
• Refining Margins: Boosted by multi-year-high diesel spreads, supported by tight global fuel availability and trade disruptions tied to ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
• Jio Platforms: Reported a 14% climb in quarterly net profit. Following its landmark market listing last week, the value unlock pushed Mukesh Ambani’s conglomerate past Tata Group to stand as India’s most valuable corporate group.

Citigroup analyst Saurabh Handa highlighted that RIL showed a clear rebound in operational leverage, capturing higher margins across refining and petrochemical operations relative to previous quarters.

Retail Segment Under Observation

Despite the overall earnings beat, the conglomerate’s retail division continues to display moderate growth. Retail revenues advanced by 1.3% year-on-year, lagging market expectations as the business absorbed margin pressure from its ongoing expansion into quick-commerce channels.

Analysts at Jefferies noted that the sharp rebound in the legacy oil-to-chemicals segment provides solid near-term downside support, pointing out that RIL traded at more than two standard deviations below its long-term average EV/EBITDA multiple prior to the rally. A sustained pickup in retail revenues back to mid-teen percentages could drive the next phase of institutional re-rating.