Netanyahu Bloc Leads in Israeli Vote Count but Remains Short of Majority Amid Political Gridlock

JERUSALEM — With more than 84% of ballots tabulated following Israel’s national election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc leads the race with 54 projected seats in the 120-member Knesset, falling short of the 61-seat threshold required to assemble a majority government.

The opposition bloc, headed by Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party, currently holds 49 seats, while Arab-majority factions—including the Joint List and Ra’am—command 17 seats. Because both Zionist blocs remain below the magic number of 61, the country faces the prospect of protracted coalition haggling or a persistent legislative deadlock.

Arab Factions Eye Kingmaker Role

The 17 seats projected for the Arab parties have placed them in a pivotal position. Addressing supporters at election headquarters, the leader of the Joint List declared that his alliance is ready to take active steps to dismantle the current governing coalition and block Netanyahu from securing another term.

While forming a formal ruling coalition between Zionist opposition parties and Arab factions remains politically complicated, potential cooperation—such as backing a consensus candidate for Knesset speaker or recommending an opposition mandate—could significantly alter the balance of power.

Economic Reactions: Shekel Softens and Tel Aviv Stocks Slide

The lingering uncertainty surrounding the outcome and the likelihood of extended political instability weighed heavily on domestic financial markets. On Wednesday, the Israeli shekel depreciated against major foreign currencies, while primary indexes on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange posted notable losses as investors reacted to the prospect of prolonged coalition talks.

Strong Likud Showing in War-Affected Towns

Despite broader headwinds and a fiercely contested nationwide campaign, Netanyahu’s Likud retained resilient support across southern and northern boundary towns heavily affected by recent conflict. Tally data revealed solid pluralities for Likud in border areas such as Sderot and Kiryat Shmona, where local electorates turned out in large numbers in support of the right-wing slate.

Double-Envelope Ballots Awaited

Officials from the Central Elections Committee noted that the current distribution reflects regular ballot boxes. Thousands of “double-envelope” votes—cast by active-duty military personnel, security personnel, diplomatic staff, and hospitalized citizens—remain to be counted. These remaining votes historically lean toward right-wing and centrist factions and could still nudge individual party totals across electoral thresholds or shift key Knesset mandates before final results are certified.